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1999 National Collegiate Women's Rowing Championship

May 28-30, 1999
Lake Natoma
Sacramento, California, USA

Pre-Race Analysis for Varsity Eight Final

Last updated: 5:45 pm PDT on Saturday

Sunday morning races begin at 10:00 am. This is one hour earlier than indicated on the NCAA official web site.

Disclaimer

This is a pre-race analysis of the Varsity Eights final to be run Sunday morning. This is strictly the unofficial opinion of Kent Mitchell and not a prediction, but it may go this way.

Varsity Eight Final
Race time: Saturday 11:40 am

Opinion / Analysis by Kent Mitchell (Totally Unofficial)

The Varsity 8+ final appears to be likely to leave everyone guessing until the last 500 meters. The entire field should be very tight through the first 1500 meters, with Washington taking an early, but precarious lead through the 1000 meter mark. However, Washington seems vulnerable to challenge in the last 750 meters, both here and at the Pac-10 Championships two weeks ago, and must mount a strong defense to several challenges likely from Cal, Brown and Virginia. If Virginia can bear down in the second 500 meter interval and stay overlapped with the leaders during the middle of the race, its fast last 1000 and its advantageous position in what could be a wind-favored lane 1 in the last 500 meters could earn Virginia a silver or bronze medal, and even a shot at gold. Cal also has terrific speed in the 3rd 500 meters, but it must fight off pressure in the last 500m so that if it has the lead, it can hold it against fast closing Brown, Virginia and a comeback by Washington. Harvard also may lose steam in the last 500 meters and must bear down there to stay in the hunt.Brown's last 500 meter split (2 seconds faster than Washington's) puts it in perfect contention to take the gold.

Though not a prediction, the following proforma race report, which is based strictly on the mixing of each crew's times in today's semi-final races, may turn out to be prophetic.

                     1999 NCAA WOMEN'S ROWING CHAMPIONSHIPS

                          VARSITY WOMEN'S EIGHT FINALS

              ***** prediction *****         ***** prediction *****

LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS      WIND            ELAPSED   SPLIT    STROKES/
                            1500*  0 M/S    CREW   TIME     TIME    MTRS TO GO
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  HAR    <HAR                             WSH  1:40.50  1:40.50  37.7/1744M
  5  WSH <WSH                                PRN  1:40.90  1:40.90  39.7/1853M
  4  CAL  <CAL                               CAL  1:41.50  1:41.50  39.6/1785M
  3  BRN   <BRN                              BRN  1:42.22  1:42.22  37.6/1820M
  2  PRN <PRN                                VIR  1:42.65  1:42.65  42.9/1921M
  1  VIR   <VIR                              HAR  1:43.15  1:43.15
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  HAR    <HAR                             WSH  3:24.92  1:44.41  35.8/1268M
  5  WSH <WSH                                CAL  3:25.19  1:43.69  39.5/1304M
  4  CAL <CAL                                PRN  3:25.41  1:44.51  35.3/1367M
  3  BRN   <BRN                              BRN  3:26.41  1:44.19  34.6/1342M
  2  PRN  <PRN                               HAR  3:28.22  1:45.06
  1  VIR     <VIR                            VIR  3:29.32  1:46.67  34.6/1403M
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  HAR    <HAR                             CAL  5:10.60  1:45.40  36.4/ 714M
  5  WSH  <WSH                               WSH  5:11.42  1:46.50  33.6/ 683M
  4  CAL <CAL                                BRN  5:12.07  1:45.66  34.6/ 826M
  3  BRN   <BRN                              PRN  5:12.08  1:46.66  36.3/ 854M
  2  PRN   <PRN                              HAR  5:13.79  1:45.57
  1  VIR       <VIR                          VIR  5:16.85  1:47.53  36.3/ 899M
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  HAR            <HAR                     BRN  6:50.89  1:38.82  38.3/ 266M
  5  WSH   <WSH                              WSH  6:52.29  1:40.86  40.4/ 215M
  4  CAL        <CAL                         VIR  6:56.00  1:39.14  35.8/ 380M
  3  BRN <BRN                                CAL  6:57.89  1:47.29  40.5/ 251M
  2  PRN         <PRN                        PRN  6:58.79  1:46.70  38.3/ 310M
  1  VIR       <VIR                          HAR  7:01.89  1:48.10
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+

           ***** prediction *****            ***** prediction *****

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